https://docs.google.com/document/d/18NaarLjMTygymn8_iXndnnyGxIeIj7cHYJ9Vsp07bvA/edit

https://docs.google.com/document/d/17f6JQ1rrEYEBfJzD7F652jaCE-6ZfCBM-KtR57pTaF4/edit

My revised hypothesis was that the soaring numbers of Larceny-theft crimes affecting my neighborhood will be replicated throughout the country. When conducting research via the F.B.I’s Crime Data Explorer, which utilizes data from the Uniform Crime Reporting system, I learned the rate of larceny theft has actually been decreasing in both my home state of New York, and the entire United States. As you will see below:

In addition to this, I learned that the rate of Larceny-thefts in New York State have been on par to the rates of the United States. With the way both rates head in the same downward direction, I’m predicting that before 2024, the two rates will meet at nearly the same point.

Other than the F.B.I’s CDE, I also utilized the NYCPD’s historical crime data to research the larceny thefts of my local precinct (the 47th), and I was shocked. While I couldn’t calculate the rate since i couldn’t gain the specific population of NYC from 2010 – 2020, I found the raw numbers of both total violent crimes and larceny-thefts reported at the 47th precinct, and compared them as below:

Taking a step further, I calculated the percentage that Larceny-theft makes up out of the total violent crime reported in the 47th precinct and found a high point of approximately 31.95% in 2016.

With the results of my research, I realized that I proved myself wrong. The soaring numbers of Larceny-theft crimes affecting my neighborhood are actually a part of a bigger study, one that proves that the Larceny theft in New York is decreasing like literally never before.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FPbg1Qearzh EBHRJVPCrmqWK8VrvXWj/edit#gid=1784174845


I was most definitely surprised by some of the data points, mainly 2019’s black population percentage (60.2%) and the single-person household percentage (27.3%). It also surprised me that the foreign-born population of my area was nearly forty percent (39.9%). Regarding the DARE project overall, I feel that these three data points may align with one another when it comes to rising rates of larceny-theft crimes.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BjD8spMVOUVCVRlABedWRm71uU_IB5K_Ttr-z8-4Y_A/edit#gid=31496154

I’m surprised at the numbers I’ve seen. It surprised me that, as of 2020, the Grand Larceny rate for the entire country is at the lowest it’s been in 20 years. Most crimes that mainly involve theft support the idea that a criminal is motivated by greed and opportunity. The fact that society has grown more as a whole, financially, academically, and technologically, compared to 20 years ago, may be a potential factor in these decreasing rates.

The rising rates of grand larceny committed in the overview of the NYPD’s 47th Precinct will be follow the rates of neighboring counties in New York State, and the state as a whole.

How do the rising rates of Grand Larceny in the Bronx’s 47th Precinct affect the local community, and the entire city as a whole?

For my research project, I picked the New York City Police Department’s 47th Precinct, and I am going to look into the data of Felonious Assaults in that area.