The impact of the U.S.-China trade war on U.S. imports and exports

Author: Xinyu Ke

Mentor: Shruti Sharma

Institution: BMCC

Abstract: Are trade wars beneficial? To examine this question, we analyze the effects of the trade war between the U.S. and China in these years from 2015 to 2020. We first studied the trends in total exports, total imports, and the trade balance between the U.S. and China for years before, during, and after the trade war. Then, we consider product-level trade, disaggregated at the six digit-level of end-use product classification, and studied the trends of the top 5 products of exports and imports in 2020. We analyze products with the highest marginal tariff rate: vehicles and their parts and accessories, and soybean. There was a significant decline in the exports of these product categories in the year of the imposition of tariffs, which harmed the US’s trade balance. Finally, we also examine whether there are any changes in the importance of trade partners as a result of the trade war. Overall, the trade war has no significant positive impact on the US’s trade balance. Despite the increase in tariffs, China is still the most significant import partner of the United States.